A new Ecological Threat Report 2025 claims that Pakistan, about 80% of whose agriculture depends on water from the Indus River Basin, is facing the threat of severe water crisis. The ‘Ecological Threat Report 2025’ of Australia’s think-tank Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) states that India can change the flow of water of the Indus River within its technical capacity, which will have a major impact on Pakistan.
Danger increased after suspension of Indus Water Treaty
This report comes at a time when India suspended the 1960 Indus Water Treaty (IWT) after the Pahalgam terror attack in April, which was carried out by Pakistani terrorists. After suspending the treaty, India is currently not bound by the terms of water sharing.
Under the 1960 treaty, India agreed to release the waters of the western rivers – Indus, Jhelum and Chenab – to Pakistan, while the waters of the eastern rivers – Beas, Ravi and Sutlej – were kept for India’s use.
Pakistan can store water only for 30 days
The report said that India cannot completely stop the water, but even small changes in the operation of dams during critical times like summer can affect densely populated areas of Pakistan, where 80% of agriculture is based on Indus water. Pakistan has the capacity to store water for only 30 days, so it is at high risk of seasonal water shortage.
Afghanistan also announced to build a dam on Kunar
It has been reported in the report that in May, India carried out the process of reservoir flushing in Salal and Baglihar dams on Chenab river and did not inform Pakistan. After this, a flood like situation was created on the banks of Chenab in Pakistan. This showed that after stopping the treaty, India has a strategic edge in river management.
On the other hand, this week Afghanistan has also accelerated the process of building a dam on the Kunar River, which will affect Pakistan’s access to the water of the river across the border. Pakistan’s farmers are already facing the brunt of climate change and are constantly fighting problems like floods and drought.
India has the right to open and close the dam gates
According to the report, Pakistan does not have enough capacity to store river water. Therefore, even a short-term interruption or change in the flow of water can cause serious damage to agriculture.
The report says that the dams on India’s western rivers do not hold much water and are only run-of-the-river projects, meaning the flow of water cannot be stopped completely. But India has the right to open and close the dam gates and decide the timing of water release, which impacts Pakistan.
The report also said that after the treaty was suspended, India carried out the process of drainage of water on Chenab without consulting Pakistan. First some part of the river dried up and then when the gate was opened, strong water containing silt was released.
Link to Saudi-Pak defense agreement
The report also said that the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty is related to the Pakistan-Saudi defense agreement. After this agreement, it is believed that Saudi Arabia will support Pakistan. At the same time, Afghanistan is already putting pressure on Pakistan’s water and has announced a dam on Kunar River.
The report said that due to the breakdown in India-Pakistan relations, the treaty turned from cooperation to dispute. For many decades, India did not fully utilize the water of rivers like Ravi and Sutlej, and much of the water went to Pakistan.
Under the Prime Minister Narendra Modi government, India started the policy of fully utilizing its share of water. Several projects on Ravi, including Shahpurkandi Dam (completed in 2024) and Ujh Dam, were moved forward rapidly. Besides, hydroelectric projects were also expedited on the western rivers, while remaining within the limits of the treaty.
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