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After taking the oath of office, Trump went to the White House and took charge.
Donald Trump was sworn in as the 47th President of America yesterday on January 20. India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar attended his swearing-in programme. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi also congratulated Trump for his new term.
During Trump’s first term, there was a very good relationship between him and PM Modi. In 2019, Trump had organized Howdy Modi program in Houston, Texas State in honor of PM Modi during his tenure as President. During this, PM Modi also gave the slogan of ‘This time Trump government’. In such a situation, it will be interesting to see what kind of relations Trump maintains with India in his second term.
What impact can Trump’s return to the White House have on India?
1. Trump’s stance on Pakistan, Kashmir and Bangladesh
During his first term, Trump had said that he wanted to improve relations with Pakistan. But first Pakistan will have to be held accountable for terrorism. Even during the election campaign, Trump had said that we will bring peace in the world on the basis of strength. This statement of Trump is a positive message for India on the issue of radicalism and terrorism.
In 2019, when Article 370 was removed from Kashmir, Trump refused to interfere in the matter. He had described Jammu and Kashmir as an internal matter of India.
Regarding the ongoing violence in Bangladesh, Trump had said that the mob in Bangladesh is attacking and looting Hindus. This never happens during my tenure. Kamala and Biden have ignored Hindus all over the world including America.
2. India-US military relations will strengthen
Defense deals such as the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (ICET) and the American MQ-9 Reaper drone have strengthened India and US military ties. These deals were done during Biden’s tenure. Defense relations between India and America may further improve after Trump’s return.
During his first term, Donald Trump had strengthened the Quad alliance with India, America, Japan and Australia to control China in the Indo-Pacific region.
Expected to get F-35 fighter aircraft
Trump had announced a military equipment deal worth Rs 30,000 crore with India in his first term. Whereas the submarine and drone agreement was finalized during Biden’s tenure. There can be a deal with India regarding F-35 fighter jet.
3. Trump may increase tariffs on Indian exports
Trump’s return to the White House may have a negative impact on India’s exports. Trump has criticized India several times for imposing high tariffs on American products. Even during the election campaign, Trump had said that India is very strict in terms of import duty. If my government comes, we will put pressure on India to reduce tariff duties.
According to JNU Professor Rajan Kumar, if India does not reduce the import duty, Trump can retaliate by increasing tariffs on Indian products. This will have a direct impact on India’s exports.
In 2024, there was a total trade of $ 118.2 billion between the two countries, of which India exported $ 77.5 billion to America.
In December last year, Trump had threatened to impose 100% tariffs on the BRICS countries if they create a new currency for trade.
4. H1B visa process can be difficult
Trump had changed the rules of H1-B visa during his first term. He had also imposed many conditions on workers coming from other countries. Due to this, the rejection rate of H1-B visa applications increased during Trump’s first term.
A total of 3.86 lakh immigrants were granted H1-B visas in 2023, of which 2.79 lakh were Indians. Trump had earlier described H1-B visas as bad for the American workforce. However, later he supported it and called it an excellent program.
With Trump coming to power, it is estimated that 50 thousand new jobs will be created in America every year. Of these, maximum 20 thousand jobs will be in the IT sector. Trump has promised to give green cards to Indian students after graduation in America. 5 lakh students can benefit from this.
5. Can deport illegal immigrants
Donald Trump has promised to deport illegal immigrants en masse during his second term. Trump’s speech yesterday talked about expelling illegal immigrants from the country. Trump has taken a tough stance against those entering America illegally.
From October 2022 to September 2023, American agencies had arrested about 97 thousand Indians who had entered illegally. Of these, 30,010 Indians were caught at the US-Canada border. While 41,770 Indians were arrested while crossing the US-Mexico border.
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