In every election of Bihar, the Muslim community, comprising about 18% of the population, makes the most noise. This time the noise is due to the neglect in the stamps and posts of this community. Political analysts have been considering this community as the key to power for a long time. However, in the last few elections, the results of Muslim dominated seats show that BJP has the upper hand in these seats. Especially after getting the support of Nitish, these seats become the key to power for NDA.
There are 51 seats in the state, where the share of Muslims ranges from 20 to 67 percent. There are 35 seats where their share is about 18 percent. In the last elections, these seats saved the power of NDA in a close contest. Out of these 86 seats, NDA won 57 seats. In these seats with more than 20% population, NDA’s strike rate was 71%. With this, NDA was successful in touching the majority mark.
Even in the strong wave of NDA in the 2010 elections, NDA had won 71 out of 86 seats. Then, out of 51 seats with more than 20% Muslim influence, BJP had won 27 seats and JDU had won 13 seats. Whereas NDA had won 31 out of 35 seats with population less than 18 percent. In the last elections, BJP had won 23 out of 51 seats and JDU had won 10 seats.
Parallel polarization and fragmentation of Muslim votes
- In response to unilateral polarization in favor of the opposition grand alliance of Muslims, there has been a parallel polarization of votes from the majority population. Apart from this, the ruling NDA also benefited from the entry of AIMIM in the last elections. Muslim population in Kishanganj, Katihar, Purnia and Araria ranges from 38 to 68%. Sitamarhi, P. Champaran, Darbhanga have 22%. There are 51 seats with Muslim influence here, while there are 35 such seats in East Champaran, Supaul, Madhubani and Siwan, which have 18% population.
- BJP becomes more powerful in such seats when it gets the support of Nitish. In 2015, when Nitish left the BJP, the opposition grand alliance had won 34 out of 51 seats and 24 out of 35 seats covering 18% of the population. BJP could win only 22 of these seats.
- New contenders this time:
- NDA has distanced itself from this community. At the same time, along with Grand Alliance, AIMIM, Jansuraj Party is also targeting this community this time. AIMIM and Jansuraj have given tickets to the Muslim community on almost all such seats.
